Holy mackerel. Meanwhile - is he maybe just a little but too excited?

@JohnPhilpin I imagine these things are exciting for weather forecasters - it's when he gets to really earn his money.

yeah - i get it - but 'dan the man' for my money is always 'my man for the weather' - i remember him from the BEEB in the UK - and was so happy when I discovered him on NZ telly ... I need to go check how his excitement level is doing around this news!

an update … I Jax still in Auckland and reporting a lot of ‘panic talk’ as she is out doing errands. It is certainly looking like it’s gonna be bad. Hope Mr. Brown is better prepared. Stay dry sir. Stay safe.

@JohnPhilpin John, I was meaning to ask you; do you know what happened with Jacinda Ardern and her sudden exit? Is there a new Labour PM in ANZ now?

@odd I think there are a few people in here that will have better insights than I … but, never to hold back .. let me start the ball rolling.

There is an election coming up and pre resignation, there was sufficient push back on her that was cutting in to her popularity… and as a result … the Labour Party. Couple that with the usual online crap that I see in the UK and US .. and other countries .. include the blow back post Covid .. how she mismanaged it all … the demonstration outside of parliament (that as far as I can see, nobody clearly knew what they were really demonstrating about) and of course the threats on her family and life ( see here and here ) all contributed to what I consider to be a good strategic move.

She got out well ahead of the election. The successor is a proven player in Kiwi politics, who won the position unopposed. So the party has time to regroup and redefine (kill off unpopular policies) which it is successfully doing under Hipkins leadership.

New Zealand’s Labour party sees boost in polls after Ardern resignation

Of course, it all remains to be seen, but right now Luxon … the likely PM should Labour not win the next election was polling very well against Arden … but against Hipkins … not so much.

Another poll from Newshub-Reid Research has also shown Hipkins’ popularity with the public growing, with Labour rising nearly six percentage points to 38 per cent and National dropping 4.1 points to 36.6 per cent.

source : Political polls: Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ and Labour’s popularity soar - NZ Herald

All this sits as a backdrop to a broader challenge that New Zealand has … it’s global position. As a very remote country of just 5 million people, I would argue that Ardern’s international profile really helped the country, but I often heard locally how … she’d got above herself, who does she think she is, if she’d spent more time being concerned about ‘us’ … we wouldn’t be in this position (which is mainly referring to inflation) … seemingly oblivious to the fact that every country in the world has been hit to a greater or lessor extent.

This and more is part of a series I am writing on New Zealand …. Only 3 of a planned 10 have been published see here … and a couple of them will likely change and get longer on top of that.

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I have specifically used international references (The Guardian) .. (with the one exception being that last one) in the links above, to minimize the local bias that I think kicks in from time to time and the fact that the NZHerald is often paywalled.

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To conclude … that’s what I think. Would love to have thoughts from real Kiwis … what do they think?

@miraz @yorrike .. and many more I know are in here, but sadly lists aren’t supported in Microblog, and my memory ain’t what it was.

Oh … and finally … finally …I can wholeheartedly recommend a substack by Bernard Hickey .. a local journalist talking ‘all’ things New Zealand.

@JohnPhilpin @odd I'd be inclined to agree with John's comments (— but also politics is not an area where I have well informed opinions). Jacinda Ardern saw our country through extraordinarily difficult times, including not just Covid but also a volcanic eruption, a terror attack and some other events. She would have been exhausted not just by the magnificent work she did but also by the phenomenal and growing vitriol, abuse and threats from the unhinged. There is a difference between getting a country through extremely challenging times, when we can all (or nearly all) fight a common threat. After that though division into fractions is natural I believe and a backlash begins — whoever the leader and whatever the previous challenge. This was good timing for her to withdraw. We don't elect a Prime Minister — the position is drawn from the ranks of those elected. That means no gap in leadership.

@odd is also back what @JohnPhilpin and @miraz have said. Things weren’t going well for the centre left and left with Ardern being such a polarising figure. She has beeen and will be remembered as one of our greatest leaders.

But with an election rapidly approaching, she made the right decision for the Labour Party, the left, the country and most importantly of all, herself and her family.

The latest polls show a boost for Labour and their natural coalition partners (the Greens and are Pāti Māori ), and a drop for the centre right National party. A drop for National is good because it also takes the ACT party out of the running. They’d be required for a National led government and they’re filled with right wing and far right wing gun nuts, conspiracy theorists and the worst libertarians you can imagine. Having them near the controls of the country would be genuinely terrifying.

As outward looking as Aotearoa is, we’re also infuriatingly insular. Imagining we need to come up with solutions from scratch for problems other countries have already solved. Or people imagining problems with policy changes where there examples overseas where the evidence shows the problems being imagined aren’t actually problems. As progressive as we seem internationally, we’re actually horribly conservative. So much so that our new PM prefaced his dumping of some unpopular policies by saying he’s heard that “we’re doing too much, too quickly”, which is as quintessentially Kiwi as you can get.

But it’s going to be an interesting election. We’ve tend to have governments persisting through three terms (9 years). Before the country decides it’s bored and the incomprehensible swing voters decide to switch from centre right to centre left. Labour has led the last two terms, so I expect they’ll have a third term, but anything is possible.

@JohnPhilpin Thank you for a thorough response! It made more sense to me now. My impression of Ardern, was that she cares deeply about ANZ, and acknowledges the challenges, but she also managed to put ANZ on the map around the world. From your point, the resignation may have been a smart strategic move.

@Miraz Thank you for your perspective. Yes, it has been a few very challenging years for the world as a whole, and not less for ANZ, I guess. I remember the terror, and the threats on her. The most upstanding PM, I’d say. For those with day-to-day problems of making ends meet, it’s hardly a consolation though, so I think it’s unavoidable that some are going to get unhinged. Hope she can live in peace now, with her family, and working with Labour in an other effect.

@yorrike We share the swing in popularity, only it’s two 4y periods that is the norm here. Exciting times for sure. Hope they’ll keep improving things, and keep the conspiracy theorists and gun-people away. More countries should look to “best practices” from other, similarly big countries. We often borrow success-stories from neighboring Sweden, and do sometimes equally well, but there are always the Nationalists that demand that we are unique here, so unique solutions have to be made. 🙄

@odd yup - see also the replies from @miraz and @yorrike - who also weighed in - we all seem to be in rough agreement. (PHEW - always hesitant to weigh in this deeply on other country's situation 🥺)

@JohnPhilpin 🙂👍

@JohnPhilpin I hope someone else can explain because I don't fully understand this myself. What I can offer you is that only about 5 to 10 percent (if that) of the population who float between Labour and National get to decide the government, so look closely at what is happening in the centre.